Relatório Especial 14: os 12 "bons desconhecidos" com que a Força Aérea tentou desenhar um disco voador, e por que não conseguiu

The "Flying Saucer" Model The importance of the problem dictated a second approach, should the statistical results prove inconclusive. It was decided that an attempt would be made to describe the physical appearance, flight characteristics, and other attributes (that is, construct a model) of a class or classes of "flying saucers". Preparatory to this attempt, a re-evaluation of the UNKNOWNS was necessary. This re-evaluation was accomplished by a panel composed only of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS reports available at ATIC, the panel made a careful study of the reports for the UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 - those groups for which the sun was either above the horizon or less than 10° in elevation below the horizon. This study had two purposes. The first was to determine, with additional information such as the angle of elevation of the sun, how many of the UNKNOWNS might be ascribed to known phenomena. The second was to obtain those UNKNOWNS which were described in sufficient detail that they might be used to construct a model or models of "flying saucers". It was decided to put any of the UNKNOWNS which might be known phenomena into a "possible KNOWN" category to denote the slightly lower confidence level which could be ascribed to these new evaluations. The

UNKNOWNS with sufficiently detailed description would be called "good UNKNOWNS", while the remainder would simply be called UNKNOWNS. One hundred sixty-four folders of a total of 186 OBJECT SIGHTINGS in Groups 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 were examined. There were 18 possible aircraft, 20 possible balloons, 7 good UNKNOWNS, 100 UNKNOWNS, and 19 others which were identified as being possible KNOWNS of various types. It is interesting to note that two of these were established as mock suns on the basis of the angle of sun elevation and the sun bearing angle, together with the direction of the object from the observer. In addition, the UNKNOWNS in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 4 and 5 (nighttime sightings) were scanned with no attempt at identification, but to find any possible "good UNKNOWNS". There were five sightings that could be put into this category. Of the UNKNOWNS, there were approximately 20 sightings that were observed in such a way that they should have been recognized easily if they had been familiar objects, that is, there was little possibility that their shapes, as seen, could have been distorted sufficiently by one cause or another to render them unrecognizable. There were a very few that would have been identified as guided missiles or rockets, but that were not so identified because of the geographical location in which they were seen. All of the remaining UNKNOWNS were classified as such solely because they were reported to have performed maneuvers that could not be ascribed to any known objects. In these cases, the shape might have been unrecognizable also, but it was felt that this was because of distortion and distance, or because of darkness. This is a very important point. To put it differently, if these UNKNOWNS, which represent all but about 40 of the UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS, were reported to have performed maneuvers which could be ascribed to known phenomena, they would probably have been identified as KNOWNS. With the exception of some radar sightings, all of these maneuvers were observed visually. The possibilities for inaccuracies are great because of the inability of an observer to estimate visually size, distance, and speed. Reports of sightings by radar usually were of high-speed objects, some at extremely high altitudes. Some were identified as UNKNOWNS because there was no object to be seen visually at the point indicated by the radar set. It cannot be said with any assurance what these radar sightings mean, but the most logical explanation is that they are ground targets reflected by an atmospheric temperature inversion layer. The validity of this statement cannot be established. It is felt that radar sightings in this study are of no significance whatsoever unless a visual sighting of the object also is made. Taken in conjunction with the Chi Square Tests discussed earlier, the results of the re-evaluation of reports identified as UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS would seem to indicate that the majority of them could easily

have been familiar objects. However, the resolution of this question with any degree of certainty appears to be impossible. Thus, out of the 434 OBJECT SIGHTINGS that were identified as UNKNOWNS by the data reduction process, there were only 12 that were described with sufficient detail that they could be used in an attempt to derive a model of a "flying saucer". The following is a summary of the 12 good UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS:

Case I (Serial 0573.00). Two men employed by a rug-cleaning firm were driving across a bridge at 0955 hours on July 29, 1948, when they saw an object glide across the road a few hundred feet in front of them. It was shiny and metallic in construction, about 6 to 8 feet long and 2 feet wide. It was in a flat glide path at an altitude of about 30 feet and in a moderate turn to the left. It was seen for only a few seconds and apparently went down in a wooded area, although no trace of it was found. [Drawing labels:] 6' to 8'. 1-1/2' x 2'. These are round cups which protrude.

Case II (Serial 4508.00). A naval aviation student, his wife, and several others were at a drive-in movie from 2115 to 2240 hours on April 20, 1952, during which time they saw several groups of objects fly over. There were from two to nine objects in a group and there were about 20 groups. The groups of

objects flew in a straight line except for some changes in direction accomplished in a manner like any standard aircraft turn. The objects were shaped like conventional aircraft. The unaccountable feature of the objects was that each had a red glow surrounding it and was glowing itself, although it was a cloudless night. [Drawing labels:] Light glow. Fuzzy area.

Case III (Serial 2013.00, 2014.00, and 2014.01). Two tower operators sighted a light over a city airport at 2020 hours on January 20, 1951. Since a commercial plane was taking off at this time, the pilots were asked to investigate this light. They observed it at 2026 hours. According to them, it flew abreast of them at a greater radius as they made their climbing turn, during which time it blinked some lights which looked like running lights. While the observing plane was still in its climbing turn, the object made a turn toward the plane and flew across its nose. As the two men turned their heads to watch it, it instantly appeared on their other side flying in the same direction as they were flying, and then in 2 or 3 seconds it slipped under them, and they did not see it again. Total time of the observation was not stated. In appearance, it was like an airplane with a cigar-shaped body and straight wings, somewhat larger than a B-29. No engine nacelles were observed on the wings.

[Drawing at the top of page 80, belonging to Case III: cross-shaped object, cigar-shaped body with straight wings; no labels.]

Case IV (Serial 4599.00). A part-time farmer and a hired hand were curing tobacco at midnight on July 19, 1952, when they looked up and saw two cigar-shaped objects. One hovered while the other moved to the east and came back, at which time both ascended until out of sight. Duration of observation was 3 to 4 minutes. Both had an exhaust at one end, and neither had projections of any kind. It was stated that they appeared to be transparent and illuminated from the inside. [Drawing labels:] Exhaust. Lighted.

Case V (Serial 0565.00 to 0565.03). A pilot and copilot were flying a DC-3 at 0340 hours on July 24, 1948, when they saw an object coming toward them. It passed to the right and slightly above them, at which time it went into a steep climb and was lost from sight in some clouds. Duration of the observation was about 10 seconds. One passenger was able to catch a flash of light as the object passed. The object seemed powered by rocket or jet motors shooting a trail of fire some 50 feet to the rear of the object. The object had no wings or other protrusion and had two rows of lighted windows. [Drawing labels:] Cockpit windshield? Pilot. Windows with white light. Black. Copilot.

Case VI (Serial 4822.00). An instrument technician, while driving from a large city toward an Air Force base on December 22, 1952, saw an object from his car at 1930 hours. He stopped his car to watch it. It suddenly moved up toward the zenith in spurts from right to left at an angle of about 45°. It then moved off in level flight at a high rate of speed, during which maneuver it appeared white most of the time, but apparently rolled three times showing a red side. About halfway through its roll it showed no light at all. It finally assumed a position to the south of the planet Jupiter at a high altitude, at which position it darted back and forth, left and right alternately. Total time of the observation was 15 minutes. Apparently, the observer just stopped watching the object. [Drawing labels:] White. No light. Deep red.

Case VII (Serial 2728.00). A Flight Sergeant saw an object over an Air Force base in Korea at 0842 hours on June 6, 1952. The object flew in a series of spinning and tumbling actions. It was on an erratic course, first flying level, then stopping momentarily, shooting straight up, flying level and again tumbling, then changing course and disappearing into the sun. It reappeared and was seen flying back and forth across the sun. At one time an F-86 passed between the observer and the object. He pointed it out to another man who saw it as it maneuvered near the sun. [Drawing labels:] Rotation. Black lines evenly spaced. Proportion 7 to 1 (Dimensions are as shown in observer's original drawing).

Case VIII (Serial 0576.00). An electrician was standing by the bathroom window of his home, facing west, at 0825 hours on July 31, 1948, when he first sighted an object. He ran to his kitchen where he pointed out the object to his wife. Total time in sight was approximately 10 seconds, during which the object flew on a straight and level course from horizon to horizon, west to east. [Drawing labels:] Noted shadow. 6' to 8'. 20'. (Ratio approx. 3:1).

Case IX (Serial 0066.00). A farmer and his two sons, aged 8 and 10, were at his fishing camp on August 13, 1947. At about 1300 hours, he went to look for the boys, having sent them to the river for some tape from his boat. He noticed an object some 300 feet away, 75 feet above the ground. He saw it against the background of the canyon wall which was 400 feet high at this point. It was hedge hopping, following the contour of the ground, was sky blue, about 20 feet in diameter and 10 feet thick, and had pods on the side from which flames were shooting out. It made a swishing sound. The observer stated that the trees were highly agitated by the craft as it passed over. His two sons also observed the object. No one saw the object for more than a few seconds. [Drawing labels:] Side view. End view.

Case X (Serial 1119.00). An employee in the supersonic laboratory of an aeronautical laboratory and some other employees of this lab, were by a river, 2-1/2 miles from its mouth, when they saw an object. The time was about 1700 hours on May 24, 1949. The object was reflecting sunlight when observed by naked eye. However, he then looked at it with 8-power binoculars, at which time there was no glare. (Did glasses have filter?) It was of metallic construction and was seen with good enough resolution to show that the skin was dirty. It moved off in horizontal flight at a gradually increasing rate of speed, until it seemed to approach the speed of a jet before it disappeared. No propulsion was apparent. Time of observation was 2-1/2 to 3 minutes. [Drawing labels:] Something equivalent to a patch. Smoother in front. Direction of motion. Rough and wrinkled in rear. Surface appeared dirty and spotty in color.

Case XI (Serial 1550.00). On March 20, 1950, a Reserve Air Force Captain and an airlines Captain were flying a commercial airlines flight. At 21:26, the airline Captain directed the attention of the Reserve Air Force Captain to an object which apparently was flying at high speed, approaching the airliner from the south on a north heading. The Reserve Air Force Captain focused his attention on the object. Both crew members watched it as it passed in front of them and went out of sight to the right. The observation, which lasted about 25 to 35 seconds, occurred about 15 miles north of a medium-sized city. When the object passed in front of the airliner, it was not more than 1/2 mile distant and at an altitude of about 1000 feet higher than the airliner. The object appeared to be circular, with a diameter of approximately 100 feet and with a vertical height considerably less than the diameter, giving the object a disc-like shape. In the top center was a light which was blinking at an estimated 3 flashes per second. This light was so brilliant that it would have been impossible to look at it continuously had it not been blinking. This light could be seen only when the object was approaching and after it had passed the airliner. When the object passed in front of the observers, the bottom side was visible. The bottom side appeared to have 9 to 12 symmetrical oval or circular portholes located in a circle approximately 3/4 of the distance from the center to the outer edge. Through these portholes came a soft purple light about the shade of aircraft fluorescent lights. The object was traveling in a straight line without spinning. Considering the visibility, the length of time the object was in sight, and the distance from the object, the Reserve Air Force Captain estimates the speed to be in excess of 1000 mph.

[Drawing labels:] Flashing light. Portholes.

Case XII (Serial 3601.00). At 0535 on the morning of August 25, 1952, a musician for a radio station was driving to work from his home when he noticed an object hovering about 10 feet above a field near the road along which he was driving. As he came abreast of the object, he stopped his car and got out to watch. [Omitted by the portal: detail about the witness's health], he could not leave the road, since the surrounding terrain was rough. However, he was within about 100 yards of it at the point he was standing on the road. The object was not absolutely still, but seemed to rock slightly as it hovered. When he turned off the motor of his car, he could hear a deep throbbing sound coming from the object. As he got out of the car, the object began a vertical ascent with a sound similar to "a large covey of quail starting to fly at one time". The object ascended vertically through broken clouds until out of sight. His view was not obscured by clouds. The observer states that the vegetation was blown about by the object when it was near the ground. Description of the object is as follows: It was about 75 feet long, 45 feet wide, and 15 feet thick, shaped like two oval meat platters placed together. It was a dull aluminum color, and had a smooth surface. A medium-blue continuous light shone through the one window in the front section. The head and shoulders of one man, sitting motionless, facing the forward edge of the object, were visible. In the midsection of the object were several windows extending from the top to the rear edge of the object; the midsection of the ship had a blue light which gradually changed to different shades. There was a large amount of activity and movement in the midsection that could not be identified as either human or mechanical, although it did not have a regular pattern of movement. There were no windows, doors or portholes, vents, seams, etc., visible to the observer in the rear section of the object or under the object (viewed at time of ascent). Another identifiable feature was a series of propellers 6 to 12 inches in diameter spaced closely together along the outer edge of the object. These propellers were mounted on a bracket so that they revolved in a horizontal plane along the edge of the object. The propellers were revolving at a high rate of speed. Investigation of the area soon afterward showed some evidence of vegetation being blown around. An examination of grass and soil samples taken indicated nothing unusual. Reliability of the observer was considered good.

[Drawing labels:] 20' to 25' height. Approximately 75' long.

These 12 sightings can be classed into four categories on the basis of their shapes, as follows: (1) Propeller shape - Case I (2) Aircraft shape - Cases II and III (3) Cigar shape - Cases IV and V (4) Elliptical or disc shape - Cases VI to XII The criterion for choosing the above sightings was that their descriptions were given in enough detail to permit diagrams of the objects to be drawn. It might be noted here that in all but one of these cases (Case XI) the observer had already drawn a diagram of what he had seen. The objective of this section of the study was the conceiving of a model, or models. The requirement that the description be detailed is an important one, and was the easiest to determine in the re-evaluation program. However, a good model ought to satisfy the following conditions as well: (1) The general shape of the object and the maneuvers it performed should fit the reports of many of the UNKNOWNS and thus explain them. (2) The observer and the report should be reliable. (3) The report should contain elements which should have been observed with accuracy, and which eliminate the possibility that the sighting could be ascribed to a familiar object or to a known natural phenomenon. (4) The model should be derived from two or more good UNKNOWNS between which there is no essential conflict. It can be shown that it is not possible to deduce a model from the 12 cases that will satisfy all of these conditions. The following case-by-case discussion of the 12 good UNKNOWNS will illustrate this point: (1) Case I does not satisfy Conditions 1 and 4. The reported shape of this object is not duplicated in any of the other UNKNOWNS. (2) Case II does not satisfy Conditions 1 and 3. There are very few UNKNOWNS in the aircraft shape classification. In addition, the unusual characteristic of this sighting (i.e., the red glow) could have been reflection of the lights of Flint from the objects if they were either birds or aircraft.

(3) Case III does not satisfy Condition 1. It also does not satisfy Condition 4 when Case II is eliminated as a good UNKNOWN. (4) Case IV does not satisfy Conditions 1 or 2. There are few cigar-shaped or rocket-shaped objects reported in the literature. In addition, this observer is not considered to be well-qualified technically. (5) Case V does not satisfy Condition 1. It also does not satisfy Condition 4 when Case IV is eliminated as a good UNKNOWN. It might be argued here that many of the UNKNOWNS might actually have shapes similar to these good UNKNOWNS. It will be noted, however, that each of these five cases does not satisfy one of the other three conditions. (6) Case VI does not satisfy Condition 2. In the description of the object, it was stated that at certain times there was no light seen from the object. Apparently, the "band of no light", as diagrammed by the observer, was an attempt to explain this. However, if the object were constructed as shown in the diagram, light should have been seen at all times. Because of this conflict the drawing is not considered reliable, and without the drawing, there is not enough detail in the description to make it useful for this study. (7) Case VII violates Conditions 1 and 4. Although the shape is disc-like, the maneuvers performed by the object are unique both among the UNKNOWNS and among the good UNKNOWNS. Cases VIII to XII satisfy Conditions 1 through 3, but they do not satisfy Condition 4. The features which make them different from each other are as follows: (8) Case VIII. The object is smooth, with no protrusions or other details. (9) Case IX. The object had rocket or jet pods on each side that were shooting out flames. (10) Case X. The object had a fin or rudder. (11) Case XI. The object had a series of portholes, or windows, on its under side.

(12) Case XII. The object had windows in its top and front and its top midsection. It also had a set of propellers around its waist. It is not possible, therefore, to derive a verified model of a "flying saucer" from the data that have been gathered to date. This point is important enough to emphasize. Out of about 4,000 people who said they saw a "flying saucer", sufficiently detailed descriptions were given in only 12 cases. Having culled the cream of the crop, it is still impossible to develop a picture of what a "flying saucer" is. In addition to this study of the good UNKNOWNS, an attempt was made to find groups of UNKNOWNS for which the observed characteristics were the same. No such groups were found. On the basis of this evidence, therefore, there is a low probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observations of a class of "flying saucers". It may be that some reports represent observations of not one but several classes of objects that might have been "flying saucers"; however, the lack of evidence to confirm even one class would seem to make this possibility remote. It is pointed out that some of the cases of KNOWNS, before identification, appeared fully as bizarre as any of the 12 cases of good UNKNOWNS, and, in fact, would have been placed in the class of good UNKNOWNS had it not been possible to establish their identity. This is, of course, contrary to the bulk of the publicity that has been given to this problem. The reason for the nature of this publicity was clearly brought out during the re-evaluation study. It is a definite fact that upon reading a few reports, the reader becomes convinced that "flying saucers" are real and are some form of sinister contrivance. This reaction is independent of the training of the reader or of his attitude toward the problem prior to the initial contact. It is unfortunate that practically all of the articles, books, and news stories dealing with the phenomenon of the "flying saucer" were written by men who were in this category, that is, men who had read only a few selected reports. This is accentuated by the fact that, as a rule, only the more lurid-sounding reports are cited in these publications. Were it not for this common psychological tendency to be captivated by the mysterious, it is possible that no problem of this nature would exist. The reaction, mentioned above, that after reading a few reports, the reader is convinced that "flying saucers" are real and are some form of sinister contrivance, is very misleading. As more and more of the reports are read, the feeling that "saucers" are real fades, and is replaced by a feeling of skepticism regarding their existence. The reader eventually reaches a point of saturation, after which the reports contain no new information at all and are no longer of any interest. This feeling of surfeit was universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually necessitated a conscious effort on their part to remain objective.